As international tensions rise and tariff activity increases, trade analysis will be a crucial part of strategic decision-making. Analyzing Import export data can give you key insights into domestic markets and international markets. This will allow you to make better business decisions. Trade data can provide insight into the supply chain dynamics, domestic demand, and recent shifts of raw material movement among countries.
Consumption apparent
When there is no production estimate, import export data analysis can help to estimate the local demand for certain goods and services. This is known as apparent consumption. This takes into account both the country's exports and production.
According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (UNFAO), Canada produced 8.7 Million Tons of barley in 2016. Canada also exported 1.2 million metric tons and imported less than 0.1 million metric tons. Canada's barley consumption is estimated to be approximately 7.5 million tonnes.
This analysis can be affected by errors in reporting for both domestic production via government sources and trade data. This analysis can be used to estimate the demand in a country for a product.
Supply chain insights
Many times, inputs from other countries are used in the final product. The import export dataanalysis can be used to analyze the flow of raw materials across countries, and identify countries that supply bulk material.
For example, trade analysis can be used to determine the origins of materials and their value by different countries. It is possible that there may be a correlation between raw materials flowing into a country and exports from that country of finished goods or intermediate part. Different regions may have different data that could give additional insight into top exporters of particular goods. This information can help inform future strategies to acquire raw or intermediate material.
Data sources that report both value and volume exports can provide insight into general export prices for different countries. The US International Trade Commission reported that 48 million kilograms of soybean seed (or $28 millions) were exported from the United States to Canada in 2017. These metrics can be used for estimating a rough soybean seed export price of $0.60 per kilogram. These are estimates for the entire HS code. Estimates will be affected by any errors in reporting during trade flow. These measures should be known by all users.
Trends over time
In an era of rising trade tensions, import export data can be useful for examining the effects of trade policies on regional and global flows of goods. Trade data can show how production inputs are used by different industries.
Exports to the region could drop if there is a decline in production capacity. Many industries depend on components from all over the globe for their production processes. These countries might be showing signs of a shift in their trade behavior, which could indicate that it is time to reevaluate the source.
Caveats
Users should be aware that there are several caveats to consider when interpreting or analysing trade database reports. It is possible to track shipments under one HS code, even if they contain multiple products. It would also include extra goods and lead to an underestimation of trade for the particular good. These extra goods will not be included in trade flows, which could cause underestimation of the trade between countries. There are many ways to spot discrepancies.
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Compare exports and production data to identify underestimated flows.
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Primary research with market participants to determine the average trade share for manufactured goods.
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To approximate the export price, use volume and value estimations. Compare the estimated or known average price of goods.
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